International security also known as global security is where states and international organizations work towards the survival of humanity (Buzan, 2009). This extends to the safety and security of people as well. There are multiple environmental conflicts that exist and will continue as climate change impacts the Earth. Those conflicts are the relationship between resources and environmental conflict, the conflict as a result of scarcity or abundance, conflict within resolution and peacemaking, and the destruction of the environment from military establishments (Jordan, 2021).
There are two main perspectives to look at environmental conflict, realist and institutionalist. A realist believes that the world exists in anarchy and cooperation is overlooked. Additionally, realists argue that environmental change contributes to internal conflict and interstate war (Jordan, 2021). From the institutionalist perspective, cooperation is possible by creating and adhering to rules and norms. Within this perspective, successful cooperation focuses on norms that have mutual interest and will take steps to avoid cheating the rules (Jordan, 2021). Beyond the hypothetical, there are examples of both these viewpoints existing in the real world.
Climate change has been occurring more rapidly over the last couple decades. Among the scientific community, there is a consensus that the temperature can only increase by a maximum of two degrees Celsius in order to avoid catastrophic damage to the environment (Busby, 2018). “As temperatures rise, the distribution of climate phenomena will shift. Floods that used to happen once in a 100 years will occur every 50 or every 20” (Busby, 2018). These changes in temperature will lead to changes in natural disasters. “Events such as droughts and coastal flooding, exacerbated by global warming, result in food and water shortages and mass human migrations that can destabilize governments and threaten U.S. national security interests” (Strawa, 2020).
As these disasters occur throughout the world, people will be forced to migrate towards other areas and states will fight over resources. Busby claims that the richer countries will most likely be able to cope better with the costs of moving people and obtaining resources, however; the poorer countries will be the ones that will create the global problems when they can no longer afford food and supplies necessary for their state’s survival.
As resources dwindle, states will make claims to resources. Escalation will lead to climate wars in order for states to obtain the resources needed for their people. In the United States, the Colorado River brings water to the entire southwest of the country. This year was the first time a water shortage was declared and the beginning of water cuts to certain areas (Sakas, 2021). Luckily, this is a domestic issue and the federal government has the authority to force an agreement around the water distribution. Any government can resolve internal conflict through setting rules, imposing taxes, and punishing defectors if necessary (Jordan, 2021, Lecture 2). However, developing rules and having states abide by them becomes much more difficult on an international level.
“India and Pakistan, for example, both draw a great deal of water from the Indus River, which crosses disputed territory” (Busby, 2018). This will cause a greater escalation than the example of the Colorado River due to the lack of a regulating body overseeing the two states. As needs increase, there will be more desperation to fight for the resource to increase the state’s survivability. These two examples relate to water, but this will apply to all natural resources as the scarcity continues to be exacerbated. In order to evade the dependence on other state’s resources, some states “will innovate to reduce their dependence on these minerals, such pressures will become more common as the clean energy transition progresses” (Busby, 2018). This will only delay the inevitable because there are some resources that these innovations cannot replace. Escalation of necessary resources for survivability will lead to climate wars for state’s to provide for their people.
As climate change increases the occurrence of natural disasters, resources are taken out of the equation for some states. “Declining agricultural productivity and other climate risks will compel people to move from the countryside to the cities or even across borders. Tens of thousands of people will have to be relocated” (Busby, 2018). These resources are necessary for a nation’s survivability and when they can no longer take care of their citizens, those citizens will seek refuge elsewhere. Busby goes on to question “for those that cross borders, will they stay permanently, and will they become citizens of the countries that take them in?
“In a response to this future, New Zealand has proposed a potential “new visa category for small numbers of climate refugees from Pacific island states” (Busby, 2018). This would be different from the refugees currently in the world who seek shelter due to war or poverty. Some states have closed borders though currently and may not welcome refugees due to the climate crisis. Additionally, if refugees migrate due to a climate incident, the incident will most likely affect a large area and thus a large number of refugees. “The EU has been facing a record numbers of migrants, asylum-seekers and refugees in recent history that ignited stronger border control and several difficulties in the management of these flows, expressed through mass detention of new arrivals, lack of organization and resources in refugee camps, dual negotiations with transit countries, increasing human trafficking networks and the lack of solidarity and agreement about the European relocation scheme” (Estevens, 2018). The EU is already struggling with the amount of refugees seeking asylum and climate change will cause humanity to migrate into a more dense population since certain areas of the world will now be uninhabitable.
As refugees migrate, “even if they settle in, some reports indicate cases of illegal work, work exploitation, involvement in prostitution and human organ trafficking networks” (Burgess, 2011, p. 15). “According to the Greek White Paper, illegal immigration is one of the main threats undermining national and international security” (Estevens, 2018). These refugees will need to find a way to make money and support themselves. If an influx occurs too rapidly, there will be a struggle with many political aspects including the legality of how the refugees are making money and influencing culture. Furthering this idea, Busby questions if there is a large migration of people, “will governments that acquire territory inside other countries gain sovereignty over that land?” There will be many political aspects that come into play with climate change causing migration and national security will affect how the states interact on an international level.
There are four main key issues when dealing with global governance in any arena: number of actors, cost and benefits, non-state actors, and leadership (Jordan, 2021). There is a way to have the institutionalist state of mind and create rules to follow to reduce worsening damage to the Earth. However, cooperation would be difficult to achieve because the number of actors is high when dealing with the entire planet and everyone involved has different interests. Lecture discussed two examples, the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols. The Montreal Protocol was successful due to the low number of actors, consensus on the science, and good benefit to cost ratio. The Kyoto Protocol was unsuccessful due to the large number of actors, no consensus on the science and exemptions for developing countries. “Both Russia and Canada have proposed charging for passage through the arctic if it was to thaw enough (Strawa, 2020). Both these countries have direct interest in this aspect to not comply with climate change regulation. With a bleak forecast of countries working together, it is unlikely that regulation will be able to be a preventative measure against climate change. Thus, escalations for resources and migrations due to climate change are a foreseeable part of the Earth’s future.
References
Buzan, B., & Hansen, L. (2009). Defining International Security Studies. In The Evolution of International Security Studies (pp. 8–20). Chapter 1, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Burgess, J. P. (2011). Introduction: Security, migration and integration. In J. P. Burgess, & S. Gutwirth (Eds.), A threat against Europe? Security, migration and integration, (pp. 13–15). Brussels: Institute for European Studies
Busby, J. (2018, July). Warming world. Foreign Affairs.
Estevens, J. (2018). Migration crisis in the EU: Developing a framework for analysis of national security and defence strategies. Comparative Migration Studies, 6(1).
Jordan, J. (2021) “Non-Traditional Security: The Environment.” INTA-6103. Georgia Institute of Technology. Online Lecture.
Sakas, M. (2021, August 17) “The First-Ever Colorado River Water Shortage Has Been Declared. What Does That Mean for Colorado?” Colorado Public Radio, Colorado Public Radio. Strawa, A. W., Latshaw, G., Farkas, S., Russell, P., & Zornetzer, S. (2020). Arctic ice loss threatens national security: A path forward. Orbis, 64(4), 622–636.
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